| Date | Ticker | Direction | Thesis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 12, 2026 | SHORT | The Japanese Yen rallied post-election due to political certainty (Takaichi trade unwinding). This rally is a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" event. The fundamental backdrop (negative real yields, slow growth) hasn't changed. The market will eventually resume the carry trade against the Yen. SHORT JPY (expecting USD/JPY to rise after this temporary dip). The BOJ aggressively hikes rates faster than expected. | ||
| Feb 12, 2026 | SHORT | Strong US payroll data failed to push the Dollar significantly higher. The market's non-reaction to good news suggests the "pain trade" is lower. The world is structurally overexposed to the USD and looking to hedge/diversify. Li notes structural employment slowdowns relative to the Euro area. SHORT US DOLLAR (sell into rallies). A resurgence of US inflation forcing the Fed to hike or hold rates much longer than priced. |